"Here's a simple arithmetic question: "A bat and ball cost $1.10. The bat costs $1 more than the ball. How much does the ball cost?""
Did you get it right? On the first try? Check your math.
BALL + BAT = $1.10
BAT = BALL +$1.00
BALL does not cost 10 cents. (And don't leave me comments that you got it right - especially you homskulers!)
"...When people face an uncertain situation, they don't carefully evaluate the information or look up relevant statistics. Instead, their decisions depend on mental short cuts, which often lead them to make foolish decisions. The short cuts aren't a faster way of doing the math; they're a way of skipping the math altogether..."
Ever notice that two lanes of traffic seems to merge WAAAAY before the cones? People think that merging earlier will smooth things along faster. Then, one car sees that (smarter) people are driving down the empty lane to merge further ahead, so that car decides to block the lane.
"...Consider the overconfidence bias, which drives many of our mistakes in decision-making. The best demonstration of the bias comes from the world of investing. Although many fund managers charge high fees to oversee stock portfolios, they routinely fail a basic test of skill: persistent achievement. As Mr. Kahneman notes, the year-to-year correlation between the performance of the vast majority of funds is barely above zero, which suggests that most successful managers are banking on luck, not talent..."
I went to college for +5 years and (finally) earned a degree in Finance. I came away with two things: 1) You can't beat the market, and 2) The house always wins. That is why the carnies make money at the carnival...
"...A recent survey of American homeowners found that they expected, on average, to spend about $18,500 on remodelling their kitchens. The actual average cost? Nearly $39,000..."
And then you sell the house...Mom, Dad...
Summary: Just because somebody has a nice job, a nice suit, and a nice house...doesn't mean they are smarter than you.